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<h1><a href="https://archiveofourown.org/works/27606464">probability theory</a> by <a class='authorlink' href='https://archiveofourown.org/users/waspfactor/pseuds/waspfactor'>waspfactor</a></h1>

<table class="full">

<tr><td><b>Series:</b></td><td>entropy [1]</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Category:</b></td><td>Assassination Classroom</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Genre:</b></td><td>Character Study, Melancholy, Minor Injuries, Suicide Attempt</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Language:</b></td><td>English</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Status:</b></td><td>Completed</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Published:</b></td><td>2020-11-17</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Updated:</b></td><td>2020-11-17</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Packaged:</b></td><td>2021-05-07 01:47:22</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Rating:</b></td><td>Not Rated</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Warnings:</b></td><td>No Archive Warnings Apply</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Chapters:</b></td><td>1</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Words:</b></td><td>490</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Publisher:</b></td><td>archiveofourown.org</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Story URL:</b></td><td>https://archiveofourown.org/works/27606464</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Author URL:</b></td><td>https://archiveofourown.org/users/waspfactor/pseuds/waspfactor</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Summary:</b></td><td><div class="userstuff">
              <p>but the problem with probability arises here: while 0.0021% is a less than slim chance, it can and does happen. one outcome fits the 0.0021% chance, maybe more than one simulation will achieve the lucky 1/46656. if you rolled a die (6 times to achieve the consecutive pattern) 46656 times, there’s a chance one of those rolls would result in you preferred outcome.</p><p>it’s just a matter of who’s rolling the dice.</p>
            </div></td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Series:</b></td><td>entropy [1]</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Series URL:</b></td><td>https://archiveofourown.org/series/2018348</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Comments:</b></td><td>2</td></tr>

<tr><td><b>Kudos:</b></td><td>71</td></tr>

</table>

<a name="section0001"><h2>probability theory</h2></a>
<div class="story"><div class="fff_chapter_notes fff_head_notes"><b>Author's Note:</b><blockquote class="userstuff">
      <p>hi!!! been a while!!! this is... something. a thinkpiece more than anything. thought of this while i was working and i typed it out in 10 minutes really. by no means is this my best work (or the karma thing i'm working on) but it's something and could be considered... a prequel to the karma thing im doing? or at the very least related? in some way? i feel like they'd work together so they're going in the same series &gt;:))</p><p>honestly please just take this from me ahahahha</p>
    </blockquote></div><div class="userstuff module">
    
    <p>A die has 6 faces, 6 sides, 6 possibilities. Rolling one results in any outcome being 1/6 or roughly 17% chance. After the first roll, the numbers get dicey. Say if you wanted to roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 consecutively? That gives you a chance of 1/46656 which is… an unfavourable odd. 0.0021%.</p><p> </p><p>But the problem with probability arises here: while 0.0021% is a less than slim chance, it can and does happen. One outcome fits the 0.0021% chance, maybe more than one simulation will achieve the lucky 1/46656. If you rolled a die (6 times to achieve the consecutive pattern) 46656 times, there’s a chance one of those rolls would result in you preferred outcome.</p><p> </p><p>It’s just a matter of who’s rolling the dice.</p><p> </p><p>Karma Akabane thinks logically. He’s a gifted child and thinks in equations, logarithmics and systematically. He times how long red lights remain red at junctions, accurately predicts how many homework sheets his teacher can mark in one night, notes down the fluctuating price of his favourite brand of strawberry milk.</p><p> </p><p>The universe is just a matrix of numbers, of <em>code </em>and Karma just knows how to interpret it. It’s not hard given some thought and dedication. There’s others he knows can work it out, who know the rules of this game.</p><p> </p><p>Karma Akabane, however, for all his wit and intelligence, is but a fool. Karma Akabane believes in luck.</p><p> </p><p>He can’t describe it, really. He’s studied probability before, knows that is true luck but it doesn’t stop him for never looking before he crosses the road, before he dives into the deep end of an unfamiliar pool, why he wins in fights despite any size or ability differences.</p><p> </p><p>It’s all luck. He never has to worry about being hit by a vehicle, never drowns, never loses. It’s almost like a power.</p><p> </p><p>If he were the fanatical sort, he’d call witchcraft. Hell, he hasn’t ruled it out completely.</p><p> </p><p>He rolls 6 die; all sides show the number 4. He laughs. Does it again and gets the 6 dice showing 6 different numbers. He works out the maths and laughs again.</p><p> </p><p>When asked ‘kill or save’, he flips a coin and lets that decide his decision. Flips a coin before sitting his midterms. Heads or tails? Red or black? Odd or even? Win or lose?</p><p> </p><p>Some are safer bets than others: his parents never write any letters to him (true, heads, red, flip), he achieves the overall highest ranking in his year (false, heads, black, flip), he will never get into a car accident (false, tails, red, <em>flip</em>).</p><p> </p><p>Near the end of the school year, he decides to <em>really </em>test this luck of his. He’s an analytical one by nature, believes in the scientific method. To support a hypothesis, you need evidence.</p><p> </p><p>6 bullets in the chamber and yet the gun jams.</p><p> </p><p>It’s a terrible thing, luck.</p>
  </div><div class="fff_chapter_notes fff_foot_notes"><b>Author's Note:</b><blockquote class="userstuff"><p>im no a stats student but there's an inherent romanticism to probability.... maybe that's me being a Weirdo</p><p>if the maths is wrong, sorry but also maths deserves to be wrong, personally</p><p>im wasp-factor on tumblr come read abt my akabane family headcanons n me ranting abt the monarchy!!</p></blockquote></div></div>
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